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Experts Predict Non-Residential Construction to Remain Steady in 2008 Housing Market to Rebound in 2009
FMI’s Construction Outlook, a quarterly construction market forecast developed by FMI’s Research Services Group, has been released. Though FMI is not yet predicting a national recession or a downturn in nonresidential construction in 2008, the outlook is tipped slightly
downward.
Nonresidential construction was booming in 2007 and will increase again in 2008, although at a slower rate, the report notes. Nonresidential construction will expand at a 5- percent rate in 2008 and a 4- percent rate in 2009 as the declines in residential begin to lower demand for certain nonresidential segments, the report
predicts.
“There are several drags on the economy such as housing and credit tightening. However, resilient consumers, businesses and exports have so far been able to prop it up,” says Heather Jones, construction
economist.
The research company also predicts the housing market will not recover until 2009. However, the report notes “put-in-place” construction will realize a smaller decline than housing starts due to rising labor and material costs, upgrades and the use of higher-end materials. Despite large declines in total residential and single-family construction, both will remain at a high level, the report
predicts.
The Construction Outlook is based on data provided by the U.S. Commerce Department. Forecasts are based on econometric and demographic relationships developed by FMI, on information from specific projects gathered from trade resources and on FMI’s analysis of social and economic conditions.
| New
Privately Owned Housing Units Started in 2007 (in
million units) |
|
U.S.
Total |
Northeast |
Midwest |
South |
West |
| January |
1,408 |
196 |
195 |
716 |
301 |
| February |
1,525 |
135 |
161 |
827 |
402 |
| March |
1,518 |
123 |
237 |
784 |
374 |
| April |
1,528 |
172 |
194 |
763 |
399 |
| May |
1,434 |
165 |
242 |
704 |
323 |
| June |
1,467 |
161 |
233 |
721 |
352 |
| July |
1,367 |
154 |
238 |
643 |
332 |
| August |
1,331 |
96 |
248 |
716 |
271 |
| September |
1,191 |
141 |
174 |
514 |
257 |
| October |
1,229 |
153 |
207 |
577 |
292 |
| November |
1,187 |
123 |
202 |
601 |
256 |
| Source:
U.S. Commerce Department |
|
| VALUE
OF IMPORTS TO UNITED STATES |
|
Sept.
’07 |
Aug.
’07 |
Difference |
| Finished
Products (in units) |
| Plastic
windows and their frames |
6,923,047 |
7,418,579 |
-6.70% |
| Doors and
their frames, wood |
58,785,765 |
59,637,194 |
-1.40% |
| Aluminum
windows and their frames |
25,858,829 |
23,948,773 |
8.00% |
| Iron windows
or steel and their frames, not stainless |
2,678,767 |
2,560,822 |
4.60% |
| Wood windows,
French windows and frames |
17,482,003 |
15,548,115 |
12.40% |
| Materials
(in units) |
| Cast and
rolled glass |
8,932,145 |
7,906,266 |
13% |
| Float glass |
575,552 |
901,619 |
-36.20% |
| Laminated
safety glass |
4,480,951 |
4,991,841 |
-10.20% |
| Insulating
glass units |
17,168,447 |
14,822,548 |
15.80% |
| Wood and
articles of wood |
60,878,901 |
53,004,968 |
14.90% |
| Source:
U.S. Commerce Department |
|
|
VALUE
OF EXPORTS TO UNITED STATES
|
|
Sept.
’07 |
Aug.
’07 |
Difference |
| Finished
Products (in units) |
| Plastic
windows, frames and thresholds for doors |
9,541,420 |
11,208,115 |
-14.90% |
| Wood windows,
French windows and their frames |
7,399,085 |
7,517,151 |
-1.60% |
| Doors and
their frames, wood |
13,092,601 |
15,057,621 |
-13.10% |
| Materials
(in units) |
| Cast and
rolled glass |
36,437,841 |
38,300,814 |
-4.90% |
| Float glass |
53,358,446 |
53,161,217 |
0.36% |
| Laminated
safety glass |
6,672,549 |
7,262,621 |
-8.10% |
| Insulating
glass units |
7,607,803 |
9,185,577 |
-17.20% |
| Articles of
glass |
15,052,165 |
14,826,031 |
1.50% |
| Articles of
wood |
14,598,972 |
17,665,615 |
-17.40% |
| Continuously
shaped wood |
24,072,351 |
24,894,063 |
-3.30% |
| Source:
U.S. Commerce Department |
DWM
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No reproduction of any type without expressed written permission.
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