IndustryIndices  
FORECASTS  
Experts Reveal  
Spring Housing Forecasts  
very fall, the nation’s premiere housing forecasters predictions and make adjustments as necessary. The data  
reveal their predictions for the following year in terms below, from organizations including the American Institute  
of housing starts and the like. Then in the spring, of Architects and the Associated General Contractors of  
E
they get a chance to do it all again: look at those America, takes another look at future growth.  
y
U.S. Total HoUu.Ssi.nTgoStatal rHtosusing Starts  
U.S. Total HUo.uSs.inTgotSatlaHrotsusing Starts  
Northeast  
South  
Grand total  
3
3
2
50  
00  
50  
1,200  
1,000  
2,500  
2,000  
1,500  
1,000  
8
00  
00  
200  
150  
6
1
00  
400  
200  
0
5
00  
5
0
0
0
Year  
Year  
Year  
Total single-family  
Total multi-family  
Midwest  
West  
2
1
1
1
1
1
,000  
,800  
,600  
,400  
,200  
,000  
1,200  
500  
450  
400  
350  
300  
250  
200  
600  
500  
400  
1
,000  
800  
600  
400  
300  
800  
600  
400  
200  
0
150  
200  
100  
0
200  
100  
50  
0
0
Year  
Year  
Year  
Year  
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau (Department of Commerce) / Charts: CMD.  
Multifamily Housing Starts Have Seen a Strong  
However, with Recent Strength, Multifamily Housing  
Recovery, Outpacing Levels During the Last Boom  
StartsPProrjoejcetcetdetdotSoeeSeSeloSwleorwGerrowGtrhowintNheianr TNeeramr Term  
Recovery, Outpacing Levels During the Last Boom  
National housing starts (000s, SAAR)  
Multifamily housing starts (thousands)  
5
4
3
2
1
00  
00  
00  
00  
00  
0
3
97  
Fannie Moody’s  
Consensus  
3
56  
Mae  
Analytics  
MBA  
NAHB NAR Zelman (average)  
352  
341  
336  
309  
307  
284  
412  
(+3.6%)  
2
016  
410  
487  
393  
390  
417  
390  
420  
400  
390  
2
45  
178  
4
39  
2017  
428  
574  
405  
116  
(+6.6%)  
109  
4
28  
2018  
510  
400  
375  
(-2.4%)  
Forecast  
Date  
Apr-16  
Apr-16  
Apr-16  
Apr-16  
Mar-16  
Mar-16  
.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.  
Hardest Positions to Fill  
Hardest Positions to Fill  
How Contractors are Coping with Worker Shortages  
How Contractors are Coping with Worker Shortages  
%
of respondents who are having trouble filling  
Increasing compensaƟon  
Raising base pay  
Providing incenƟves/bonuses  
Increasing contribuƟons/benefits  
Paying more overƟme  
56%  
4
8%  
ALL Hourly craŌ professionals  
Carpenters  
79%  
73%  
29%  
2
3%  
23%  
Hourly  
Salaried  
Sheet metal installers  
Concrete workers  
Electricians  
65%  
63%  
60%  
23%  
16%  
4%  
10%  
0%  
20%  
30%  
40%  
50%  
60%  
Increasing use of:  
Subcontractors 43%  
Staffing company 33%  
Labor-saving equipment, tools, machinery 19%  
Lean construcƟon 13%  
ALL Salaried professionals  
Project mgrs/supervisors  
EsƟmators  
52%  
55%  
43%  
Engineers  
34%  
Offsite prefabricaƟon 9%  
Unions 9%  
Building informaƟon modeling (BIM) 7%  
0
%
25%  
50%  
75%  
100%  
0%  
10%  
20%  
30%  
40%  
50%  
60%  
Source: AGC Member Survey, Sept. 2015  
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