DWM
© 2018 Copyright Key Media and Research All rights reserved. 
No reproduction of any type without expressed written permission.

18
Door & Window Market www.dwmmag.com
HOUSING OUTLOOK
2018
Growth Amid Uncertainty
Optimism Advances, but Some
Clouds are On the Horizon
T
he U.S. housing market con-
tinues its steady recovery from
the Great Recession. Prices are
rising in most markets, and
there are signs that millennial
renters are finally coming off
the sidelines to become homeowners.
The first half of 2018 could also see
a boom in construction in Florida,
Texas and Puerto Rico as those areas
recover from the devastating hurri
-
canes that struck in late summer and
early fall.
But things arent perfect yet.
Affordability remains a major con
-
cern, with renters and homebuyers in
the hottest urban markets on the East
and West coasts facing housing costs
that far exceed the rest of the coun
-
try. Multifamily housing, which kept
the residential construction industry
afloat during the recessions darkest
days, is finally cooling off. And the new
administration in Washington, eager to
reform the nations tax code, has sig
-
naled that it’s willing to step on one of
the third rails of American housing pol
-
icy: the mortgage interest deduction.
The latest tax-reform package
includes a proposal to cap the deduc
-
tion on future home sales at $500,000.
The current cap is $1 million for cou
-
ples filing jointly. (Existing mortgages
would not be affected.) That could
potentially slow the U.S. housing
market. The proposed tax-reform bill
could also disallow the deduction for
home equity loans, which could harm
the remodeling market as well.
Also worrisome for housing: a
softwood lumber trade dispute with
Canada thats led to tariffs on imports.
That could boost the costs of home
building (see page 44).
With that in mind, DWM presents
its annual look at the factors that
could shape the U.S. housing market
into 2018 and beyond.
NAHB/NAR: Optimism
Persistent low housing inventory in
many parts of the country is behind the
below-average share of first-time buy
-
ers in recent years, but two experts say
theres increasing evidence that a surge
in homebuilding is around the corner.
Jessica Lautz of the National
Association of Realtors (NAR)
and Robert Dietz of the National
Association of Home Builders (NAHB)
gave a presentation on housing sup
-
ply and affordability at October’s
2017 Realtors Conference & Expo in
Chicago. Lautz and Dietz shared their
insights on the causes and effects of
the nations continued shortage of new
and existing homes for sale.
Lautz, highlighting findings from
NAR’s 2017 Profile of Home Buyers
BY TREY BARRINEAU

DWM
© 2018 Copyright Key Media and Research All rights reserved. 
No reproduction of any type without expressed written permission.